Tools 04 — Monte Carlo
MonteCarlo.
A thousand futures, one distribution.
Each path draws yearly returns from a normal distribution with the mean and volatility you set. The result is a range of outcomes, not a prediction.
- Median outcome (50th percentile)
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- Pessimistic · 10th percentile
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- Optimistic · 90th percentile
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- Probability of ending below the amount invested
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- Worst simulated path
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Percentile fan
- 10th – 90th
- 25th – 75th
- Median
- Invested
X · yearsY · capital, €
Distribution of final outcomes
Saved for your review request.
How it works
- Yearly return
- ry ~ Normal(μ, σ), drawn independently for each year and path (Box–Muller, seeded generator)
- Path
- Capitaly = Capitaly−1 × (1 + ry) + Contribution
- Percentiles
- Computed across all paths for each year (10, 25, 50, 75, 90)
A normal distribution understates extreme events and ignores fat tails, autocorrelation and regime changes. Treat the fan as a way to see uncertainty, not to measure it precisely.
A statistical model on your assumptions. Not investment advice, not a forecast; returns are not guaranteed and capital is at risk.